Analysis: a 3.9% month built on small airports and a reversing international line

Two things distinguish July from the months around it. The first is that international traffic grew at all. In May 2026, OMA reported total traffic up 3.6% with domestic up 4.7% and international down 2.8%. In July the international line rose 7.5% while domestic slowed to 3.3%, an inversion of that pattern within two months. The seven month figures explain why this matters: international traffic is up just 0.5% for the year to date against 3.0% for domestic, so July’s international gain is a single strong month against a flat base rather than an established trend. One month at 416,568 international passengers does not change a year to date total of 2,482,715.

The second is the concentration. Monterrey contributed 1,502,694 of the 2,808,787 passengers in the month and went backwards by 0.1%. That means the entire 3.9% system increase was produced by stations that individually carried between 47,435 and 203,669 passengers in the month. Durango at 38.0%, San Luis Potosí at 28.1% and Acapulco at 20.6% are large percentages on small bases, and each can be moved by a single new route or a seasonal schedule. The three routes that started in July, two of them seasonal, are exactly the kind of addition that produces such swings.

Set against the wider market, OMA’s month was in line rather than exceptional. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico reported total July passenger traffic across its twelve Mexican airports up 3.9%, the same rate, though with a very different internal shape: Guadalajara up 13.2% and Tijuana up 7.2% against Puerto Vallarta down 12.1% and Los Cabos down 6.9%. Both groups grew, and in both cases the average sits on top of double digit divergence between individual airports. That is consistent with capacity being redeployed between Mexican cities rather than with a uniform national increase in flying.

The traffic report is deliberately narrow, and it is worth being clear about what it cannot show. It counts terminal passengers and excludes those in transit. It contains no revenue, no tariff and no commercial income per passenger, and OMA’s own quarterly results demonstrate that the gap between those series is large: in the second quarter traffic grew 0.4% while aeronautical and non aeronautical revenues grew 5.4% and adjusted EBITDA grew 6.2%. Passenger counts are a weak proxy for the revenue they generate at an airport group whose regulated tariffs and commercial mix move independently of volume.

The next data point that would settle the question is the third quarter results, which will show whether a quarter containing July’s 3.9% converts at the same rate as the second quarter’s 0.4% did, and whether the non aeronautical line, up 9.8% in the second quarter, keeps outgrowing the aeronautical line. A reader tracking the network rather than the accounts would instead watch Monterrey, which is large enough that its return to growth, or its continued flatness, will set the system rate on its own.

What the documents say

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (NASDAQ: OMAB), the Mexican airport operator known as OMA, handled 2,808,787 terminal passengers across its 13 airports in July 2026, up 3.9% from 2,703,824 a year earlier, according to the monthly traffic report it issued on August 5, 2026 and furnished to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on Form 6-K. Domestic traffic rose 3.3% to 2,392,219 passengers and international traffic rose 7.5% to 416,568.

Where the growth came from

The headline rate spans a wide range between airports. Monterrey, the largest in the group, was flat: 1,502,694 passengers against 1,504,466, a decline of 0.1%, out of a system total of 2,808,787. Every point of net growth therefore came from the smaller stations.

Durango grew fastest at 38.0%, to 74,677 passengers from 54,122. San Luis Potosí rose 28.1% to 109,110, Acapulco 20.6% to 70,636, Zacatecas 16.2% to 49,161 and Reynosa 14.5% to 47,435. Torreón rose 8.4% to 85,047 and Chihuahua 7.9% to 193,741. Mazatlán grew 5.2%, Culiacán 4.1% and Tampico 3.0%. Two airports shrank: Ciudad Juárez by 0.2% to 200,026 and Zihuatanejo by 0.7% to 61,117.

Commercial aviation accounted for 99.5% of traffic and general aviation for 0.5%, unchanged as a split from earlier months this year. Three routes began operating during July. TAR added two, between Mazatlán and Torreón in both directions, both seasonal, and Mexicana added one regular route between Chihuahua and Mexico City’s Felipe Ángeles airport.

For the first seven months of 2026, OMA carried 16,764,208 passengers against 16,332,363, an increase of 2.6%. Domestic traffic over that period was up 3.0% at 14,281,493 and international traffic up 0.5% at 2,482,715.

The quarter before it

OMA reported second quarter results on July 27, 2026. Traffic in the quarter reached 7,228 thousand passengers, up 0.4% from 7,201 thousand, on a seat count that fell 0.3%. Aeronautical revenues rose 3.9% to 2,680 million pesos and non aeronautical revenues rose 9.8% to 942 million pesos, so the two together grew 5.4% to 3,622 million pesos. Including construction revenues of 844 million pesos, total revenues were 4,466 million pesos, up 2.6%.

Adjusted EBITDA was 2,722 million pesos, up 6.2%, at a margin of 75.2% against 74.6%. Income from operations was 2,389 million pesos and consolidated net income 1,478 million pesos, up 10.2%, giving earnings per share of 3.80 pesos. Investment under the master development plans plus strategic investments was 949 million pesos in the quarter and 1,554 million pesos for the half.

The six month figures set the same relationship out again. Traffic for the first half was 13,955 thousand passengers against 13,629 thousand, a rise of 2.4%, while aeronautical and non aeronautical revenues together rose 4.8% to 6,919 million pesos from 6,603 million pesos. Adjusted EBITDA for the half was 5,143 million pesos, up 4.2%, at a margin of 74.3% against 74.8%, and net income of the controlling interest was 2,700 million pesos against 2,620 million pesos. Earnings per American depositary share were 3.19 dollars for the half against 2.88 dollars, a gain of 10.9%, ahead of the 3.0% rise in peso earnings per share, which reflects the exchange rate rather than the operation.